An Aging Bull Market: Time to Be Cautious?

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By Rich Weiss - October 2019

There’s a saying on Wall Street that bull markets don’t die simply of old age. I would add that they don’t live forever, and you will see signs when they are coming to the end of their life spans.

Four signs have caught my attention. First and foremost, global growth is slowing down. Second, earnings growth is grinding to a halt. The third sign was the antibiotic shot the Federal Reserve gave the market in the form of interest rate cuts. And the bond market delivered the fourth sign when the yield curve inverted—that is, the interest rate you get on longer-term bonds became lower than the interest rates you get on short-term bonds.

While I’m not raising the recession flag just yet, I do believe caution is warranted. After all, even an aging bull can gore you.

Watch my latest video for more insight on the signs and how we’re positioning our portfolios.

Transcript

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Rich Weiss
Rich Weiss
CIO Multi-Asset Strategies

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